SA Firefighter
General Discussion => Country Fire Service => Topic started by: Bagyassfirey on October 12, 2008, 10:54:47 AM
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i notice the FDI has just gone over 50 in our area which is now extreme. be the first for this year pretty nasty day out and about.
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Strong north wind here in Naracoorte and temp will reach 30 today....
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The wind is starting to pick up here as well plus its quite warm to
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1st November FDS for Majority of Area's and 15th of November for those area's with better conditions...? thats my bet anyhow...
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1st November FDS for Majority of Area's and 15th of November for those area's with better conditions...? thats my bet anyhow...
i reckon our fire danger season starts 15th oct dont hold me to that tho...FDI is currently 81 :-o
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yeah the REAL danger season has probably started yesterday for you....the fire "BAN" season i mean ;)
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Still too green here to get high GFDI.
Estimate only 50-80% cured returns GFDI=25 at worst.
Windy enough to keep a few crews busy if something
got going, but nothing to lose sleep over.
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Filtered panic merchants. spread a semi load of petrol over a 10 acre paddock and it still would struggle to burn in the lower SE at the moment.
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Filtered panic merchants. spread a semi load of petrol over a 10 acre paddock and it still would struggle to burn in the lower SE at the moment.
[/q
YP and Midnorth would burn at drop of a hat now. mid north especially. has dried off extremely qucikly in last 3 weeks. hence i think fire ban seasons will be bought forward.
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Ringer, would not take much and from what SAFOREST are saying the lower southeast would burn now if the conditions where right.....May be in your patch its still green as it is in most parts of the SE but with the right conditions anything will burn...
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how about this then
Wudinna 41 -5 NW 55 SW 60 15-19 0 5 246 EXT 170 EXT X
246 for the grassland FDI and 170 for the forest FDI
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1908852 16:12:27 24-10-08 CFS: SIG INC: TOTAL FIRE BANS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR 25/10/08 IN THE NWP, NEP, WC, EEP, FL, MLR, KI, LSE. ON-CALL STAFF CONFIRM. > 24/10/2008 16:12:33 PM CFS HQ Info
Summer has come early to South Australia and according to Weatherzone website Mount Gambier's forecasted temperature for Saturday has jumped from 32 to 34 degrees :-o
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crazy stuff we come under the YP fire ban district and its been above FDI 50 here most of the afternoon today yet no fire ban 2 mora :?...so technically i could go n have a burnoff 2 mora and be quite with in the law..not that i would. fire bans baffle me sometimes.....
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Would have to say the Upper southeast is much dryer than the lower southeast and they should have just done both locations,sometimes FDI'S will change by lunchtime and its too late then to have a fire ban....
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How abotu we just put the entire state in a TFB until some time next year... would that suit everyone?
Honestly people... its the BOM, they dont get the weatehr right half the time and you expecvt them to predict the FDIs accurately every day? FDIs dont mean much anything anyway until the curing is identified as being 100%.
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Remember murphy's law of fire fighting OMGWTF never say that nothing is going to happen cause something will happen :wink:
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Lower south east will burn now, Small grass fire in Millicent tonight. No wind so it didn't go far.
With tommorrows expected wind, It will burn well. But its going to rain on sunday.
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Keep it civil please.....It's a worthwhile discussion. No ones panicking just a simple observation that curing is happening rather quickly and given the prediction of warm weather and strong wind CFS are rightly putting bans in early.
No need to be alarmist but being aware that jobs could escalate this time of year is worth considering. You know what they say about complacency.
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You know what they say about complacency.
Yeah GO's are great at it :lol:
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You know what they say about complacency.
Yeah GO's are great at it :lol:
Hear hear to that!
pfft, FDI's dont worry me, im bed ridden till mid next week lol
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Keep it civil please.....It's a worthwhile discussion. No ones panicking just a simple observation that curing is happening rather quickly and given the prediction of warm weather and strong wind CFS are rightly putting bans in early.
No need to be alarmist but being aware that jobs could escalate this time of year is worth considering. You know what they say about complacency.
Brilliant idea time,....... FRIDGE MAGNETS with maybe a catchy saying like "when the FDI is 50 and above, dont be alarmed, be aware" I'm a friggan genius...alright I wasn't going to tell anyone about my other great idea , but im warmed up now so here it is.
A device that would sit in everyones house and say you wanted to ask your neighbour something, like "have you finished with my Twister game and the baby oil yet" instead of shouting over the back fence, you could pick up your "jaffaphone" and call your neighbour or anyone you had a hankering too and have a conversation, Brilliant HUH!.
Those teachers at school were sure wrong about me hey! :-D
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No need to be alarmist but being aware that jobs could escalate this time of year is worth considering. You know what they say about complacency.
No, I don't know what they say about complacency.
It isn't something I really have to worry about, is it? I mean, it's not like we have
one every day. There'll be plenty of time to find out about it if we ever have a
complacency around here. I'll decide what to do about it then.
:-D
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We where talking about FDI's last night whle washing fire trucks and we all agree that FDI'S is only part of the maths used to place a fire ban with in any part of the state....
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We where talking about FDI's last night whle washing fire trucks and we all agree that FDI'S is only part of the maths used to place a fire ban with in any part of the state....
Please explain mate... FDIs are the deciding factor, however special events/current incidents may effect it slightly.
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As someone has already said we have had FDI'S well over 50 but no fire ban....so its not the FDI that is the main factor but its,temp,wind,rh and whatever else they want to put into the factor.
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Bill..... FDIs are a number representing a calculation of temp., wind speed, rh, etc. Back to firefighting school for ya mate.
FDIs of 50+ are automatically fire bans, however as i stated before, FDIs mean nothing until there is 100% curing, which may have influenced this.
Also let us remember, that forestry FDIs also have little bearing in deciding on bans.
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Not to mention what could be predicted.. EG - a Severe hot, dry, windy change for an afternoon, resulting in a ban before the FDI is 50..
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FDIs of 50+ are automatically fire bans, however as i stated before, FDIs mean nothing until there is 100% curing, which may have influenced this.
Ummmmm.... my FDI calculator has curing as one of the factors. A big factor in fact.
Can have horrendous fire weather & still not achieve a GFDI of 50 until the curing factor gets up around 90%.
see http://www.firebreak.com.au/grassmk5.html for example
cheers
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surprisingly (or not!), I think we should change the way we think about Fire Ban Days.
FDIs relate to the "spread" of a fire really, after ignition, hence all the variables that go into the equation. Using them to determine whether or not there is a Fire Ban declared or not is sort of admitting that we are giving up and expect fires (which may or may not be the reality at present) What we need is a system to "focus" the public on the prevention of that ignition occuring.
I'm sure we've all sat around on a 39deg day thats not a FB declared day because only one of the sites in that zone are at 50 or over (I'm pretty sure 2 locations are needed to be over 50 in the FB area for it to be declared) - and then had members of the public asking us why - its damm hard to justify to them (and myself) why there is less of a fire risk on a day like that.
Soooo.... maybe we use FDIs like we currently do OR maybe very simply every day over 35 is an automatic Fire Ban day with all of the rules that come with it in an aim to "prevent" an ignition. An education process in the public would then be easy...."every day 35 or over is a fire ban day, no ifs....no butts (mis-spelling intended)" .....so doofuses burning off in the hills have even less of a defence. Its simple to administer, its easy to educate the masses....any thoughts?
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It can be a 18 degree day and have a FDI of 100 can it not?
Im thinking, 100% Curing and Severe Weather.
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Soooo.... maybe we use FDIs like we currently do OR maybe very simply every day over 35 is an automatic Fire Ban day with all of the rules that come with it in an aim to "prevent" an ignition. An education process in the public would then be easy...."every day 35 or over is a fire ban day, no ifs....no butts (mis-spelling intended)" .....so doofuses burning off in the hills have even less of a defence. Its simple to administer, its easy to educate the masses....any thoughts?
I like the idea - it would certainly make community education easier, BUT I think it would still lead to confusion. 35 where? in Adelaide? on your property? Is it a ban once the temperature reaches 35, or if it's predicted? and if its predicted, predicted where? If 34 is predicted and you burnoff but it gets hotter what happens then?
In order to police it properly, the current system is probably as good as we'll get.
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Easy solution..
its called a common sense gun.....anyone not using their common sense gets shot!
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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surprisingly (or not!), I think we should change the way we think about Fire Ban Days.
Soooo.... maybe we use FDIs like we currently do OR maybe very simply every day over 35 is an automatic Fire Ban day with all of the rules that come with it in an aim to "prevent" an ignition. An education process in the public would then be easy...."every day 35 or over is a fire ban day, no ifs....no butts (mis-spelling intended)" .....so doofuses burning off in the hills have even less of a defence. Its simple to administer, its easy to educate the masses....any thoughts?
Trouble is that temp (which is the only thing that most people can easily measure) has
only a minor role in GFDI calculation. Curing, R/H, wind speed & fuel load are all
much more important. Better perhaps to educate the masses on what FDI's are & how they
are used. Maybe CFS should request the TV & radio weather broadcasts include a predicted average GFDI for each FD, with opportunity for presenter to comment.
Something like "the GFDI in the Mt Lofty Ranges FD is expected to peak at around 40. Not high enough to trigger a fire ban, but any fires would be very difficult to contain." Or "Tomorrow's GFDI in much of the settled areas will exceed 70. CFS
advises any fire ignition is likely to get out of control. People need to take care
not to do anything outdoors which creates sparks."
A week or four of that at the beginning of summer, & by mid summer, they could just add a 3 column table of FD | FDI | low/mod/high/v.high/extreme/blammo.
cheers
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Now that sounds like a great idea Alan....
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trouble is Alan, that we cant educate people on the simplest of things now to do with Fire Safety, Stay or Go, or anything else you care to remember. Any hope that mystically through the power of the media your average Joe (or Josie) Blow will understand the intricacies of GFDI, when more than half of the firefighters on this forum dont appear to , then....... as Mr Kerrigan once offered "tell 'em they're dreaming"
I'm very aware that temp is a factor (and a minor one at that) in the FDI calculation. Honestly....I reckon the FDI is a b/s figure anyway. In reality, there is no linear relation to any figure....once the magical (and mystical) figure of 50 is reached. Does an FDI of 75 mean that the "danger" is 25 times higher than a FDI of 50, or is it 50 % higher...or is there some other quantative figure for increased risk? With GFDI being 50 equalling an "extreme" risk....what does an GFDI of 100 mean.......highly extreme??..double extreme maybe?? When it is only based on a "standard pasture carrying grass at a standard of 4 tonnes per hectare is it really valid anywhere in the Mt Lofty Ranges anyway? To read more about the lies the GFDI tells read http://www.csiro.au/products/GrassFireDangerMeter.html#2 (http://www.csiro.au/products/GrassFireDangerMeter.html#2)
My point for using temperature was for the ease of administration, and ease of getting the message accross to the public BEFORE IGNITION, not using a figure dealing with AFTER IGNITION....its just a change in mindset. Each Fire Ban Zone has major centres within it. The BOM produces weather forecasts for each town that can be accessed via the net http://weather.news.com.au/index.jsp?site=adelaidenow&contexttype=state&contextcode=sa) (http://weather.news.com.au/index.jsp?site=adelaidenow&contexttype=state&contextcode=sa)) type your postcode in....bingo...over 35 =FireBan. No net? Local radio (ABC) gives town weather forecasts. Pick the closest town... Simple, easy and you wont have to try and explain to the great unwashed that 95% cured doesnt mean you still need the tablets, or that your bacon isnt quite ready.
Anyways.....according to the news this morning, we are safe again this fire season with a new boost to our aerial fleet, who single handedly will protect us (all hail Elvis!) what an inspiring media launch <sigh> :|
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Honestly....I reckon the FDI is a b/s figure anyway. In reality, there is no linear relation to any figure....once the magical (and mystical) figure of 50 is reached. Does an FDI of 75 mean that the "danger" is 25 times higher than a FDI of 50, or is it 50 % higher...or is there some other quantative figure for increased risk?
well it does what it's intended for. CSIRO even say it's not gospel and should be adjusted for local conditions. FDI is a logarithmic scale so it's not linear.
The 'low, high, very high, extreme' colour chart thing is the one supposed to indicate to the general public the level of risk in a simple way. But so me it always seems to be very high or extreme so loses it's impact (like a normal sized pizza is called 'large' and a big one 'family', they need recalibrating back to small, medium, large).
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G'day Mr Teddy
The Macarthur Mk.4 meter assumes standard fuel loading.
The Mk.5 has a fuel load variable. See the link I provided earlier
for online versions of both GFDI meters, and the FFDI meter.
As far as notifying the public before ignition, heard an interesting &
workable proposal tonight... As soon as the local FDI in high 'risk' areas
hits 50, notify radio stations to broadcast "Activate your fire plan NOW"
warnings.
Warning text something like:
CFS advises that the fire risk is now "extreme" in locality/s X & Y.
Although no fire is currently burning, fire-fighters are unlikely to be
able to control a fire if one were to break out. Due to rapid spread,
there is unlikely to be time to implement bush fire plans after ignition .
CFS advises people in areas X & Y to implement their bush fire plan NOW.
Either leave now, or get ready to defend your property. CFS reminds you
that today is a day of total firebans. Activities involving flames or
sparks outdoors are prohibited. Call the Hotline for more info.
I think the idea has much going for it.
cheers
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Sounds like a workable idea. well done.
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Sounds like a workable idea. well done.
Not my idea. Wish it was - I think it brilliant. Gives more legs to the
plan to stay or leave early message. Acts as a trigger-point to tell
people to do it -now-. As FDI of 50+ rarely occurs around Adelaide Hills,
it wouldn't occur so often as to become mere background 'noise'.
Understand it has been presented up the food chain, but it may be too far
outside current mind-set or resources to embrace.
If enough groups were to apply pressure then CFS might come to the party.
Especially urban interface brigades in R1 & R2 whose residents seem to have
a monopoly on public ignorance. :roll:
cheers
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I'm sure we've all sat around on a 39deg day thats not a FB declared day because only one of the sites in that zone are at 50 or over (I'm pretty sure 2 locations are needed to be over 50 in the FB area for it to be declared) - and then had members of the public asking us why - its damm hard to justify to them (and myself) why there is less of a fire risk on a day like that.
The lower SE fire ban district must be different because it only takes one location to go over for a fire ban to be put on. We also work on FFDI in the LSE not Grassland. Which means early in the season we end up with filtered fireban days because the Naracoorte readings go over and Mt Gambier and Port Mac are still wearing over coats to keep warm. Although there are few forests up at Naracoorte.
The Wattle Range District Bushfire Prevention Committee have made several recommendations to the brass about how to cure these early firebans that turn out to be real Fizzers and nothing happens.
Some of the recommendations have been-
1 Move the boundry between upper and lower SE from the northern boundry of the Naracoorte district council to the Southern boundry between Naracoorte and Wattle Range.
or
2 Work on Grassland FDI's until the grass is 100% cured and then change to Forest FDI.
or
3 Go back to the old system where 2 weather locations must go over to trigger a Total Fire Ban.
Just some fuel for thought. All comments and views welcomed
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As FDI of 50+ rarely occurs around Adelaide Hills,
you're kidding arent you? <shrugs shoulders and walks away>
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Sounds like a workable idea. well done.
As FDI of 50+ rarely occurs around Adelaide Hills,
it wouldn't occur so often as to become mere background 'noise'.
Hey Dude it might pay for you to check with the BOM and see what their stastistics say. And then comw back and let us know the exact figure
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As FDI of 50+ rarely occurs around Adelaide Hills,
you're kidding arent you? <shrugs shoulders and walks away>
Hmmm... I'll qualify the comment - too broad & therefore wrong. :oops:
Applies to Southern Hills only.
I keep an eye on several weather stations throughout the day on bad days via
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60800.shtml
Take the relevant numbers & plug them into a Mk.5 meter at
http://firebreak.com.au/grassmk5.html
or CSIRO's downloadable desktop meter, which can be had from
http://www.ensisjv.com/Portals/0/meters_install.zip (unzip & run setup.exe)
For the sites I am interested in (southern Hills), high 40s is common,
but get to 50+ maybe a dozen or so times a year. Tops.
Our group also operates a weather station at Belair. We only go to
station stand-by when our local weather gets extreme. No point in
losing time & money over things which might happen 60km away in
a different Region. We -very- rarely go to standby.
I concede that the Adelaide Hills is rather larger than the southern
bit, and further north & east it would likely exceed 50 more often.
Southern Hills are often subject to TFBs when the local GFDIs barely
trickle into the 40's.
Suggestion of announcing when GFDI exceeds 50 might be broken down
to LGA level, so that people in Blackwood, Mylor or Meadows aren't
being spooked by what is happening at Gawler & Williamstown.
does that make anyone happier ?
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Members of my brigade do similar things AJ.....there are a few weather stations around the district (private ones, local school etc).
Particularly on days where the predicted FDI is extreme, various people take our local weather readings during the day, and plug it through the meter.
So locally, there might be 3 or 4 "Extreme" rated days per season.
Other areas of the Mt Lofty Ranges are obviously different to our readings, with the weather being fairly variable across the district
Pip
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ok...my last post on this particular issue.
<soapbox>
I'm struggling to understand how people can verbalise statements like "only a few extreme days in XXX area". Ok, Al...sure the Mk 5 has all sorts of variable (and unproven by research) inputs to come up with a figure - that makes it even more laughable as a tool. If you enter 10 tonnes /hectare......does that have any relevence to those areas where fuel loading is 3....or 20?....its a farcical whole of issue solution. As a sophisticated Fire Service (which is what we are - and aim to improve on), we must be able to do better than this.
I dont care much how we improve the system of getting people to think about taking extra care.....whatever it is....relying on radio broadcasts doesnt work - strong evidence of that around the world - unless we go to an emergency info only channel - like the 88.0 tourist one...except for emergencies. 99.9 Emergency Only Radio has great promise I reckon. Waiting for a commercial station to be able to fit ur emergency broadcasts in between their normal programming is inadequate. Whatever we do....or say....the more technical or complicated you make it....the less its understoood or even listened to. KISS is the strategy....now lets see the plan.
For me....I'd be much happier with my neighbours thinking every day over 30degs where there is any wind is an extreme fire danger day and taking the appropriate precautions than having them go...."phew.....the fire danger is only very high...we're ok" based on a unproven and dubious FDI of 49 and not 50. Fire fighters shouldnt have that issue....everytime u walk outside and ur butt is twiching when u think about what a fire might do...should be all the information you need
</soapbox>
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strong evidence of that around the world - unless we go to an emergency info only channel - like the 88.0 tourist one...except for emergencies. 99.9 Emergency Only Radio has great promise I reckon
Unless homeowners in the Adelaide hills and South East just purchase a UHF handheld and have it on channel 5 on fire ban days would also help so they know about an emergency happening and prepare for it
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My Tun(lol)
So for me the question is, what is the FDI for?
Is it to be used as a broad and some will say a inappropriate tool for determining firebans in defined areas?
Is it for firefighters to use to give an indication as to the possible rate of spread or fire behaviour?
Is it for an organisation to use to ramp up their level of preparedness before the possible event?
In essence its all three, but I think the one that catches everyone out is the ignorant/careless individuals who still do not conform to good practice and continue to wreak havoc with "accidental or ignorant fires".
Education of the public is paramount(were also the public)to get people to think before they act, If your prepared as a landholder to put fire on the ground, you should be prepared to pick up the phone first to see if there are any firebans in place and ensure you have adequate resources at hand to deal with it!NO EXCUSE!
"Go early or stay and defend" in your own patch, how many families really practice this? bet the answer is buggger all! The public as a whole is apathetic and if we could use the FDI or any other means to get them to help themselves during the summer, they would be one less factor, we as responders have to concentrate on.
Does the current bushfire education work? Would any bushfire education work?
The answer in my opinion is, only for a minimal few people that would probably have sought out the info anyway, but as a service we can tick the box to say we have a community education policy, unfortunately most people won't pay attention until its too late, FDI or no FDI
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Robert CH5 is dead and buried in the Adelaide Hills, and as there are more people with mobiles these days, its quicker to dial 000 :wink:
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Thats a shame :-( ahh well its best to keep up with technology although it doesnt hurt to have a backup plan :wink:
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So for me the question is, what is the FDI for?
Short answer is to have some sort of quantifying system so as to be able to describe
an expected level of fire behaviour simply, without having to detail the science and
data used to calculate it. GFDI & FFDI numbers mean something to people in the
business of managing & fighting fires.
As Mr.Teddy also quite rightly points out, as fuel loads vary wildly across a district,
the actual FDI in specific locations also varies wildly. An over-grazed paddock will
have a far lower FDI than the standing wheat crop or the scrub either side of it. FDI
numbers are meaningful at specific locations, not so meaningful across whole districts
unless they are all very big or very small numbers.
So different organisations use FDIs to nominate risk levels & trigger points relevant
to them.
For example, ETSA set 3 levels of risk regarding their infrastructure - see
http://sacfs.org/publications/Operations_Management_Guidelines_Third_Edition_Nov2004.pdf page 77
Most fire services use 5 descriptive levels of fire behaviour & risk for general public
consumption. Loosely describe the likelihood of an ignition escaping out of control.
Low (0-20), moderate(20-30), high(30-40), v.high(40-50) & extreme(>50). The system is
stating that fire fighters are very unlikely to be able to control any fire when the
FDI is greater than 50. Sometimes we get lucky. Sometimes we don't.
As with any gross simplification, it has short-comings. The cut-offs between each level
are arbitrary. As Mr Teddy quite rightly points out, there is sod-all difference in
fire behaviour between FDI of 49 & 50, but one is oficially "Very High", the other
is "Extreme".
But we need to have a quantifiable trigger-point, above which certain behaviours are
demanded of the public, and penalties can be enforced for non-compliance.
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So for me the question is, what is the FDI for?
Short answer is to have some sort of quantifying system so as to be able to describe
an expected level of fire behaviour simply, without having to detail the science and
data used to calculate it. GFDI & FFDI numbers mean something to people in the
business of managing & fighting fires.
As Mr.Teddy also quite rightly points out, as fuel loads vary wildly across a district,
the actual FDI in specific locations also varies wildly. An over-grazed paddock will have a far lower FDI than the standing wheat crop or the scrub either side of it. FDI
numbers are meaningful at specific locations, not so meaningful across whole districts
unless they are all very big or very small.
So different organisations use FDIs to nominate risk levels & trigger points relevant
to them.
For example, ETSA set 3 levels of risk regarding their infrastructure - see
http://sacfs.org/publications/Operations_Management_Guidelines_Third_Edition_Nov2004.pdf page 77
Most fire services use 5 descriptive levels of fire behaviour & risk for general public
consumption. Loosely describe the likelihood of an ignition escaping out of control. Low (0-20), moderate(20-30), high(30-40), v.high(40-50) & extreme(>50). The system is
stating that fire fighters are very unlikely to be able to control any fire when the
FDI is greater than 50. Sometimes we get lucky. Sometimes we don't.
As with any gross simplification, it has short-comings. The cut-offs between each level are arbitrary. As Mr Teddy quite rightly points out, there is sod-all difference in
fire behaviour between FDI of 49 & 50, but one is oficially "Very High", the other
is "Extreme".
But we need to have a quantifiable trigger-point, above which certain behaviours are demanded of the public, and penalties can be enforced for non-compliance.
Al, absolutely agree all, great executive summary
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Thankyou Mr.T
For my part I have re-thunk Reply #32.
It is probably better not to mention FDIs to the Great Unwashed.
Would only confuse them with data. [1]
Further, I think that most of the public think that the 5 Level "Fire Danger"
scale means "probability of a fire occurring". That's how it comes across on
the nightly weather forecast & other media. I think that is an unhelpful
interpretation. The more "very high" or "extreme" days occur without a fire
occurring -to them-, the more complacent people become.
From what I have read, "Fire Danger" was a term chosen 50 or more years ago.
Its users & target audience were people who mostly also knew it referred to fire
behaviour rather than probability of fire occurring.
I think the target audience has changed in half a century, and therefore its
name needs to change.
I have a gut feeling that if we were to re-educate the public that low/moderate/
high/etc describes likely "Fire Behaviour" or "Fire Escape Risk", it would
improve the way many people think & go about their fire season preparations.
Does this match other peoples' observations?
[1] don't know who coined this expression:
"Data isn't information. Information isn't knowledge. Knowledge isn't wisdom."
But I like it.